Gold traded around $4,020 an ounce on Wednesday, holding the previous session’s decline as oil prices rebounded following renewed hostilities in the Middle East, reviving geopolitical tensions and keeping investors focused on inflationary pressures and the interest rate outlook. The US military said it had successfully intercepted what it described as a surprise Iranian attack targeting US troops stationed across the Middle East. Investors also awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, where it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. However, markets continue to price in about a one-third chance of a rate hike, reflecting an unusually high level of uncertainty this close to a policy announcement despite repeated calls from President Donald Trump for lower interest rates. Traders also assign roughly an 80% probability to a rate increase in September, reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs could remain elevated.

US stock futures declined on Wednesday after US forces intercepted a surprise Iranian attack targeting American troops in the Middle East, driving oil prices higher and renewing concerns over inflation and the outlook for interest rates. Investors also awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, where it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, although some traders continue to price in the possibility of a rate hike. In corporate news, Ford Motor surged nearly 4% in after-hours trading after the automaker topped earnings expectations and raised its 2026 outlook. Meanwhile, SK Hynix dropped almost 2% despite reporting another record quarterly profit, as results came in below analyst estimates. Visa also fell more than 1% after the payments company issued weaker-than-expected guidance. During Tuesday’s regular session, the Dow and S&P 500 gained 1.03% and 0.21%, respectively, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.22%.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.6% year-over-year in May 2026, accelerating from an upwardly revised 1.2% increase in April and exceeding market expectations of 1.3%. The annual gain was the strongest since August 2025. However, after adjusting for inflation, home prices declined for a 12th consecutive month, as May's 4.2% inflation rate outpaced nominal home price growth by 2.6 percentage points. For a third straight month, Chicago recorded the strongest annual price increase among the 20 cities, up 6.9%, followed by New York (4.2%) and Cleveland (3.1%). Meanwhile, Las Vegas posted the steepest decline (-1.9%), ahead of Seattle (-1.8%), Denver (-1.8%), and Tampa (-1.6%). On a monthly basis, home prices increased 0.9%, easing slightly from gains of 1.0% in April and 1.1% in March but continuing to reflect the seasonal strength typically seen during the spring homebuying season. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose 0.2% from the previous month.

The US goods trade deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion in June 2026 from a 14-month high of $105.9 billion in May, according to preliminary data. Exports fell 1.8% to $204.7 billion, marking a second straight monthly decline and moving further below April's record high, driven by lower shipments of industrial supplies (-4.4%), foods, feeds, and beverages (-3.1%), and capital goods (-1.1%). Imports declined at a faster 2.6% to $306.2 billion, with purchases falling across all major categories, including consumer goods (-3.8%), capital goods (-2.0%), industrial supplies (-1.9%), vehicles (-2.5%), and foods, feeds, and beverages (-2.5%). In the first half of 2026, the cumulative goods trade deficit narrowed to $535.5 billion from $716.6 billion in the same period a year earlier, suggesting trade flows are continuing to normalize following last year's US tariff announcements, although uncertainty surrounding US trade policy remains.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell for a third consecutive session to 4.59% on Tuesday, its lowest level in about a week, as lower oil prices continued to support demand for government bonds. The ceasefire between the US and Iran appeared to be holding, while discussions involving Saudi Arabia and Oman over the future of the Strait of Hormuz remained in focus. Investors are also turning their attention to the Federal Reserve's two-day FOMC meeting, which begins today. The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at tomorrow's policy decision, with markets assigning roughly a 35% probability of a rate hike. Traders will also closely scrutinise the voting split for clues on the likelihood of a September hike, which is currently priced at around 80%.

Industrial production in India expanded by 7.3% from the previous year in June of 2026, firmly above market expectations of a 5.7% growth rate to mark the sharpest pace of expansion in nearly two years. The result consolidated the rebound from lower growth rates in the start of the second quarter, when the war in the Middle East triggered energy shortages and lifted input costs for power-intensive industries. Manufacturing production surged by 7.8%, the most since the start of the year. In the meantime, output continued to surge for electricity and gas supply (10.6% vs 10.3% in May) and rebounded for mining and quarrying (1.0% vs -1.4%). From the previous month, industrial output expanded by 0.5%.