The S&P 500 lost 1.4%,the Nasdaq tumbled 1.6%, and the Dow fell 1% on Friday as geopolitical volatility and disappointing labor data triggered a broad reassessment of the American economic trajectory. This coordinated decline reflects deep investor anxiety over the persistent rise in WTI crude oil prices and the unexpected loss of 92K non-farm payroll jobs in February. President Trump's demand for unconditional Iranian surrender and warnings from regional energy ministers regarding production force majeure have combined to push energy costs to levels that threaten global manufacturing capacity. The resulting jump in unemployment to 4.4% reinforces fears of a stagflationary environment where rising input costs collide with cooling consumer demand. Investors moved quickly to reduce risk, leading to Blackrock (-7.2%) capping withdrawals for the first time from one of its private credit funds, as concerns regarding private credit exposure and broader economic stagnation took hold.

US retail sales inched lower by 0.2% from the previous month in January of 2026, pulling back from a stall in the last month of 2025 and loosely in line with market expectations of a 0.3% drop. It was the first decline since October. Retail volumes contracted sharply for motor vehicle and parts dealers (-0.9%), gasoline stations (-2.9%), electronics and appliances stores (-0.6%), and clothing and accessories (-1.7%). Still, sales rose for furniture (0.7%), building materials and garden equipment (0.6%), miscellaneous stores (2%), and non-store retailers (1.9%). These were enough to lift the control group of retail sales by 0.3%, likely having a positive impact in the US GDP. From the previous year, retail sales rose by 3.2% in January.

Geopolitical developments will continue to dictate global markets after the war in the Middle East triggered surges in energy commodities and raised the outlook on global inflation. Reports by the IEA and OPEC will unveil how the institutions see the supply shock of seaborne energy from the Persian Gulf. The spotlight on US economic data will be on consumer inflation for February and PCE for January. Price indices will also be the focus in China, India, Brazil, and Mexico. Likewise, household spending will be the focus in Japan. In the Eurozone, markets await key industrial production aggregates for the currency bloc and its largest economies, while the monthly GDP and industrial output will be featured in the UK. Lastly, key leading indicators are due from Australia and Switzerland.

WTI crude oil futures surged over 11% to above $90 per barrel on Friday, the highest since August 2022, as intensifying tensions in the Middle East are disrupting global energy trade. On Friday, President Donald Trump urged Iran to accept unconditional surrender, amplifying fears that a drawn-out conflict could significantly impact worldwide oil supply. Earlier in the day, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that Gulf exporters would halt production within days if tankers are unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is a crucial route that normally handles about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day. The US signaled possible actions to ease pressure, including the potential release of oil from strategic reserves, while also temporarily allowing India to purchase some Russian crude already at sea. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for Asian buyers and redirected shipments through Red Sea ports to bypass Hormuz.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15 cents, or 0.4%, over a month, to $37.32 in February 2026, matching January's pace and slightly above market forecasts of 0.3%. In February, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 9 cents, or 0.3%, to $32.03. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%, up from a 3.7% advance in January and also above market estimates of a 3.7% rise.

The FAO Food Price Index increased to 125.3 index points in February 2026, the highest in four months, from an upwardly revised 124.2 in January. Prices of cereals rose 1.1% to the highest level in nine months, with wheat prices up 1.8%, underpinned by reports of frosts and heightened winterkill risks in parts of Europe and the US. Logistical disruptions in Russia and continuing tensions in the Black Sea region also contributed to the increase. Meat cost increased 0.8%, largely driven by higher world bovine and ovine meat prices. Vegetable oil prices jumped 3.3% to hit the highest since June 2022, driven by palm, soy and rapeseed oils. On the other hand, sugar cost tumbled 4.1% to the lowest level since October 2020 amid expectations of ample global supplies in the current season. Dairy prices were down 1.2% to the lowest level since January 2024, amid a continued fall in cheese prices, particularly in the EU.