Fed officials were divided on the future of interest rates and discussed a range of scenarios for the evolution of the economy and monetary policy, minutes from the FOMC meeting in June 2026 showed. Participants generally assessed that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and a few commented that, in light of these developments, there was a case for raising interest rates. Most participants also pointed to scenarios in which, in the context of stable labor market conditions, inflation would remain elevated due to strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, or the effects of tariffs. In such scenarios, almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2%. However, under their most likely economic outlook, many officials expected interest rates to end the year at or slightly below their current level. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in June, in line with expectations.

US stock indices closed mixed on Wednesday as higher oil prices worsened the macroeconomic backdrop while chipmakers rebounded. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow lost 577 points, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.3%. Treasury yields rose after President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "over" following renewed strikes, fueling concerns over energy-driven inflation. Those fears were reinforced by minutes from the Fed's June meeting, which showed some policymakers saw a case for further rate hikes if inflation remains elevated. Credit-sensitive sectors weakened, with JPMorgan losing 2.5% and Visa down 1.3%. Most AI hyperscalers lost amid concerns over heavy spending on data center infrastructure, with Alphabet (-1.4%), Amazon (-1%), and Microsoft (-1.6%) down. Chipmakers lifted the Nasdaq. Broadcom gained 4.8% after expanding its agreement with Apple (+0.9%) on US-made components, while Nvidia rose 3.6% on reports that Chinese firms plan to increase purchases of H200 chips.

The IMF kept its 2026 global growth forecast virtually unchanged at 3%, just 0.1 percentage point below its April projection, citing the world economy’s stronger-than-expected resilience to the Iran war and robust AI-related investment, according to its July 2026 World Economic Outlook. The 2027 growth outlook was revised upward to 3.4% from 3.2%. Despite the slight upgrades, the IMF warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, and the full economic impact of elevated tensions, including renewed US-Iran strikes, may still take time to materialize. Global headline inflation is now expected to reach 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.9% in 2027. The IMF projects growth of 2.3% for the US in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while China is expected to expand by 4.6% and 4.1%, respectively. India’s growth is forecast at 6.4% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, Japan at 0.6% and 0.7%, the Eurozone at 0.9% and 1.2%, and the UK at 1.0% and 1.3%.

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a widely followed measure of wholesale used-vehicle prices in the US market, edged up 0.1% month-over-month in June 2026, following a 0.3% rise in May. Prices for EVs rose 1.7% while non-EVs increased 0.2%. Year-on-year, prices went up 2.1%, below 3.6% in May, mostly due to a base effect. Compared with a year earlier, prices increased for compact cars (4.8%), luxury (1.4%) and midsize cars (0.1%) while a decline was recorded for SUVs (-0.8%) and Pickups (-0.3%). EVs cost went up 12% while non-EVs rose 1.7%. "The story of the first half is a strong tax-refund season that pushed values to levels we haven’t seen in a few years, peaking in March before normalizing, leaving the index about 1% off that March high. The bigger picture remains one of balance", according to Jonathan Gregory, Senior Director, Cox Automotive.

Copper futures fell toward the $6 per pound mark on Wednesday, the lowest in two weeks, and tracking the pullback in base metals after the escalation in the Middle East war strengthened the dollar and hampered the outlook on global manufacturing. The US and Iran exchanged attacks, prompting Washington to block Iranian energy sales and President Trump to label the current ceasefire as invalid. Energy costs rose and lifted credit costs across the globe, hampering the outlook for manufacturing activity. The developments offset supply concerns for copper as the Middle East due to the shortage of sulphuric acid since the start of the conflict, essential in the copper refining process. This is partly because of higher exports from alternative sources, with Canadian export volumes of non-metallic minerals, which are led by sulphur, rising 50% on the month in May.

The average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate for loans up to $806,500 increased to 6.58% in the week ending July 3, 2026, up from 6.57% the previous week and remaining near the nine-month highs seen in May, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This rise follows a recent uptick in US Treasury yields, driven by persistent inflation concerns and growing bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this year, despite signs of a gradually cooling labor market and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks that there is no urgency to raise rates. Total mortgage applications declined by 2.2%, after remaining flat the prior week, with refinance activity dropping 4.1% and purchase applications falling 0.6%.