WTI crude oil futures dropped more than 4% to below $90 per barrel on Wednesday, hovering near a five-week low as optimism grew that the US and Iran could reach a peace agreement, despite conflicting signals from both sides. Iranian state television reported an unofficial draft of an interim deal to end the war, while the White House dismissed the report as “a complete fabrication”. A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, could significantly ease pressure on global energy markets. However, major issues remain unresolved, including Iran’s frozen assets and guarantees over shipping access through the strait. Iranian officials said indirect talks with Washington are continuing, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that any agreement may still take several days. The Strait remains largely closed, although two non-Iranian supertankers crossed Hormuz on Tuesday for the first time in a week.

US equities were mixed on Wednesday as broad gains for traditional sectors clashed against sharp losses for chip producers and AI hyperscalers. The S&P 500 edged below the flatline and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7%, both retreating from their record highs. Nvidia and Intel dropped 3% while Qualcomm sank 9%, correcting from their strong momentum this year as markets continued to assess the sustainability of the rally for companies in the AI infrastructure space. On the other hand, Micron held its 19% surge from the last session after having its price target tripled by UBS. Meanwhile, the Dow rose 300 points to a record high amid. A draft to a peace agreement with the US by Iran indicated they were open to restore trade through the Persian Gulf, although the US stated the document was a complete fabrication. Amazon and Apple were nearly 2% higher each, while Eli Lilly, Coca Cola and P&G gained up to 3.5% to set the pace for defensive stocks.

The Federal Reserve's Fifth District manufacturing index jumped by 10 points from the previous month to 13 in May of 2026, the highest since 2021, and well ahead of market expectations of 4. The result was aligned with broader signals of strength from manufacturing surveys in the US, despite the rise in energy prices and borrowing costs since March due to the war in the Middle East. The index measuring new orders surged (17 vs 8 in April), driving a rebound in shipments (16 vs -2). Meanwhile, prices paid rose at a slower magnitude (5.96 vs 6.4), driving firms to ease the increase on their charges (4.21 vs 4.73). Looking ahead, improvements are expected both for shipments (35 vs 21) and new orders (36 vs 26).

Gold prices fell about 2% to around $4,400 an ounce on Wednesday, the lowest level in nearly two months, as declining oil prices helped ease fears of another inflation spike. Developments in the Middle East remained in focus, with traders growing increasingly hopeful that the US and Iran could soon reach an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The optimism persisted despite mixed signals from both Washington and Tehran, as well as fresh strikes earlier this week. Iranian state television reported details of an unofficial draft memorandum between Tehran and Washington, under which the two countries would restore traffic flows through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the White House later denied the report. Gold stands nearly 15% below the levels seen at the start of the conflict, as concerns over an energy-driven inflation shock reinforced expectations that major central banks may keep monetary policy tighter for longer.

Consumer prices in Brazil rose 0.62% month-on-month in the first half of May 2026, slowing from 0.89% in April but exceeding forecasts of 0.53%. Among the nine categories surveyed, food and beverages posted the largest increase, rising 1.38%, with at-home food prices up 1.73%, led by potatoes (26.29%), tomatoes (12.97%), long-life milk (6.07%), and meat (1.98%). Housing costs rose 1.03%, mainly due to a 2.16% increase in residential electricity prices following the return of the yellow tariff flag. Health and personal care advanced 1.05% as pharmaceutical products climbed 1.25% after authorized medicine price adjustments. Transport was the only category to decline, falling 0.33%, as ethanol, diesel, and gasoline prices dropped. Regionally, Goiânia recorded the highest inflation rate at 1.41%, while Brasília posted the lowest at 0.33%. On an annual basis, prices increased 4.64%.

The consumer confidence indicator in France fell to 82 in May 2026 from 84 in April, below expectations of 83, marking its lowest level since March 2023 and moving further below its long-term average of 100. Households grew more pessimistic about their financial situation, with views on both past (-29 vs -26 in April) and expected finances (-20 vs -19) deteriorating further. Assessments of living standards in France also weakened, both past (-81 vs -75) and future (-70 vs -69). Major purchase intentions declined sharply to -40 from -35, while unemployment expectations remained elevated at 54, despite easing slightly from 56. Meanwhile, households’ perceptions of past price increases continued to rise (27 vs 25), while future inflation expectations eased (2 vs 10). Saving intentions edged higher to 40 from 39, while both current and expected saving capacity remained unchanged at 18 and 14, respectively.